Heated Tobacco Products Market to Reach USD 898.86 Billion by 2030, Driven by Shift Toward Reduced-Risk Alternatives

The global heated tobacco products (HTPs) market is experiencing exceptional momentum, projected to rise from USD 49.14 billion in 2024 to USD 898.86 billion by 2030, growing at a remarkable CAGR of 63.2% from 2025 onward. This explosive growth is primarily driven by a global decline in cigarette consumption and increasing demand for lower-risk nicotine alternatives.

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Unlike traditional cigarettes, HTPs heat rather than burn tobacco, significantly reducing exposure to harmful chemicals. Their smokeless nature, reduced odor, and reusability appeal to health-conscious consumers and former smokers seeking a less harmful way to consume nicotine. As public awareness grows around these benefits, heated tobacco is rapidly gaining popularity as a next-generation tobacco solution.

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Distribution Channel Insights

The offline retail channel remains the primary revenue driver in 2024, largely due to its wide accessibility and consumer familiarity. Specialized tobacco outlets, convenience stores, and vape shops continue to lead sales, supported by:

  • Attractive packaging innovations

  • In-store promotions and demos

  • Knowledgeable staff guiding first-time users

In markets with looser regulations, physical retail stores serve as educational hubs, further driving consumer adoption.

Regional Highlights

Asia Pacific

Asia Pacific accounted for a commanding 68.9% market share in 2024, led by high smoking prevalence and early adoption in countries like Japan and China. The presence of leading industry players, including Japan Tobacco International and Philip Morris International, has accelerated product awareness and availability.

Japan

Japan remains the frontrunner in Asia, having pioneered the HTP movement since 2013. Key milestones include:

  • Launch of Ploom by Japan Tobacco

  • Entry of IQOS (PMI) and glo (BAT)

  • By 2023, HTPs represented approximately 40% of all tobacco sales domestically

  • Recent Developments

    • March 2024 – BAT opened a new Innovation Centre in Southampton, U.K., aimed at accelerating product development for HTPs, vapor solutions, and oral nicotine. The move aligns with BAT’s goal to generate 50% of revenue from non-combustible products by 2035.

    • March 2024 – PMI launched the IQOS ILUMA i series in Japan, celebrating a decade of HTP innovation. The new models include advanced features like:

      • SMARTCORE INDUCTION SYSTEM™

      • Touchscreen interface

      • Pause Mode for stick optimization

      • FlexBattery for reduced e-waste


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